Fuch, a top expert in infectious diseases in the United States, reminded that if the economy is restarted too soon, the virus will make a comeback. (Source: CNBC)
According to data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 6:00 on April 29, Beijing time, the number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the United States reached 1010717, accounting for one-third of the world; 58365 cases of deaths exceeded the United States in the Vietnam War The number of deaths during the period. But on the same day, US President Trump publicly stated that the "worst days of the United States are over." In the context of the continued growth of confirmed cases, behind Trump's such statement is the urgency of restarting the economy and the anxiety of running for re-election.
The new coronary pneumonia epidemic has caused a huge impact on the US economy. A survey conducted by the US Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) last week showed that economists' average expectation for the US economy was to shrink by 5.3% in the first quarter and by about 29% in the second quarter. As of April 18, the total number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits in the United States reached 26.4 million, erasing all employment growth since the 2008 financial crisis. Under the superimposed background of epidemic spread, economic recession and election year, in order to improve the support and satisfaction of the people, the two federal governments and several state governments finally made a decision to restart the economy.
It is true that finding a balance between "protecting the economy" and "grasping the epidemic prevention" is a common problem facing all countries. Recently, many Western countries have begun to cautiously "unblock", but the US plan to restart the economy has caused particularly great controversy.
On the one hand, the US epidemic shows no signs of easing. From the first confirmed case in the United States on January 20 to the current confirmed cases exceeding one million, especially since mid-March, the cumulative number of diagnosed curves and the number of death cases in the United States have shown a linear upward trend, and there has been no sign of easing. At the same time, the epidemic situation in Italy, Spain and other countries has already shown a slowing trend, and the number of confirmed cases and deaths per day has shown a decreasing state. It can be said that although the United States and Europe have chosen to "protect the economy", the epidemic situation facing the two is quite different. Although the daily monitoring capacity of the United States was close to 200,000 in April, it was still insufficient to support the reopening of the workplace. According to CNBC's report on the 28th, US chief infectious disease expert Fudge issued a warning that same day: If there is insufficient monitoring and response capacity when the economy is reopened, the rebound of the epidemic will bring the United States back a few weeks ago.
On the other hand, the pace of the US economic restart is also relatively radical. Take the earliest Georgia state that announced the restart of the economy as an example. On the 24th, the state announced that businesses including barber shops, gyms, tattoo shops and nail shops can be resumed. On the 27th, it further opened the cinema and catering business. However, the US CDC data model shows that the epidemic in Georgia has not yet reached its peak, and the number of single-day deaths in the state will double from May to August. The ABC said that Georgia ’s controversial plan has received a lot of criticism, and many states are waiting to see whether Georgia ’s plan will become a model or a lesson. New York State Governor Como appealed to those who want to restart the economy as soon as possible at a press conference on the 28th.
With the confirmed case curve not really easing, and the death case curve still in the fast-rising range, eager to press the economic restart button, the United States may not have ushered in the "worst days."